By Stefano de Oliveira
With several protests currently raging across various parts of the world, it can be easy to get lost in the myriad of demands and countermeasures. While the unrest in Hong Kong is certainly the most well known in the West owing to the US-China connection, the current situation in Lebanon happens to be the most plausible chance we see for real change, owing to several key factors.The instability started with the announcement of new taxes to be imposed within Lebanon’s already struggling economy, most notably including a proposed tax on using the VOIP feature on popular messaging service WhatsApp, one of the few remaining venues for encrypted communication in the developing world. This tipping point drove people onto the streets, accusing the government of using these taxes to make up for lackluster growth caused by the endemic corruption within the Lebanese government. Indeed, an incredible 93% of Lebanese responders to Gallup’s 2018 poll on the presence of widespread corruption within a country’s government agreed with the statement. The authorities quickly reversed their proposed increases, but the populace shifted their anger against the government itself, mirroring other protests sparked by small but significant changes.So why is Lebanon worth observing? The main cause for concern is its inherently fragile nature. The modern Lebanese political balance was born out of the country’s civil war (1975-1990), striking a delicate peace between the warring religious factions and their local and foreign supporters. Governmental power-sharing was reaffirmed, and the only major institution which remained non-sectarian was the highly respected Lebanese Armed Forces. Its neighbors continue to hold significant influence over the country’s affairs, with Iran continuing to support Hezbollah’s presence in the country both as a political faction and armed group, Israel invading the country in 2006 and still maintaining a large force close to the border, and the Syrian Civil War spilling over into Lebanon’s eastern region, flooding the country with more than a million refugees. This country is caught in the middle of every significant Levantine power struggle, and as we have seen now and before, the smallest spark can reignite the dormant tensions held at bay.What can we expect from the future? Given the non-sectarian character of the protests so far, the main opposition is directed against the government and its constituent allies in power. Alongside the consideration that the government’s scaling back of proposed changes has not diminished the tensions so far, it is clear that the organizers simply wish the current ruling class to go. But what can it be replaced with? Many people on the streets hope that the Army will use its highly regarded position to establish a non-sectarian government which ousts the stagnant political leadership, even as soldiers violently clash with protesters over roadblocks. However, the removal of political heavyweights which include Hezbollah leaders could create a power vacuum which would lead to external pressure being applied to secure a more favorable position in this key geopolitical region. While the Lebanese people may see this as a chance for reform, it could become one more volatile region in the already destabilized Middle East. So, what can we expect from the US? On paper, the current protests are favorable to the American position in the Middle East. Lebanon is currently nominally a thorn in the side of US policy, owing partially Iranian and Syrian influence. Therefore, regime change could present an opportunity, but only if America applies a light touch. Heavy-handed sanctions or similar action could result in an unprecedented backlash, especially if the economic suffering is attributed to US pressure. Perhaps letting the situation play out would present the best choice, even if that means not having a hand in the potential transition process. But if other nations choose to make the first move, for example if Iran chooses to protect Hezbollah’s influence, the US (and Israel) cannot stand by and allow another theatre of conflict to emerge in this region. Hopefully, it will not come to that and a clean regime change will maintain the balance of power needed to keep Lebanon together, but anyone with an interest should keep a close eye on the protests and how they will play out in the near future. Sourceshttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/27/lebanon-protesters-form-human-chain-across-entire-countryhttps://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/lebanon-protests-rock-hezbollah-s-grip-power-s-cause-hope-ncna1072256https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/shots-fired-lebanons-tripoli-army-clashes-protesters-191026162304116.htmlhttps://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/267767/behind-lebanon-whatsapp-revolt.aspxhttps://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
Lebanon: Opportunity or Danger?
