Analysts Predict a Downturn in Voter Turnout in the 2024 Presidential Election, Particularly in Younger Demographics
By: Evie Grossman
As November looms, analysts are concerned about a drop in voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential Election.
Recent elections have seen unprecedented voter participation. Particularly, the 2020 Election saw a dramatic increase, turning out the highest percentage of eligible voters since 1960. However, analysts do not foresee this positive trend continuing.
This trend has already begun to unfold, with the presidential primaries demonstrating this reality. So far, only 10% of eligible voters nationwide have participated in the primary elections. Turnout on Super Tuesday– the day when the greatest number of primaries are held, and thus a pivotal day for the outcome of the presidential nomination– lagged behind previous years. Further, there was an increase in uncommitted voters; in Minnesota, for example, 20% of voters chose the “uncommitted” option.
Many have attributed dissatisfaction with the front-running candidates to be the driving force of voters’ abstaining. According to a recent poll, 26% of Americans have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump. This discontent is particularly prominent amongst young Americans.
Young Americans in particular have demonstrated disillusionment with the political system. In a survey conducted last month, 41% of voters ages 18-29 responded that they dislike both candidates, while only 15% of voters over the age of 65 voiced the same dual-disapproval. In a widespread youth poll conducted at the start of the 2024 campaign cycle, when asked if they were “definitely” planning on voting in the Presidential election, 8% fewer young voters responded affirmatively than did at the beginning of the 2020 election.
Political scientists have attributed this downtick in youth enthusiasm to an array of issues. Many voters have voiced concerns over the candidates’ positions regarding the Israel-Hamas War, particularly on the Democratic side, where voters have cited discontent in Biden’s support of the War. However, the data suggests that this displeasure runs deeper, with even more young Republicans abstaining than young Democrats. Others have mentioned climate change, inflation, and the rightward shift of the GOP to be among their difficulties in choosing a candidate.
As the Election date draws closer, it will become increasingly more important for candidates to try to empower disenfranchised voters. Particularly, as new generations gain political power, the nation will be looking to the policy mechanisms candidates use to recapture the young vote.
https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/06/super-tuesday-key-takeaways
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/us/politics/biden-young-voters-trump-michigan.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/magazine/2024-election-nonvoters.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/13/few-voters-decide-trump-biden-nominations/
